Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-18 2.347632 2.490589 2.646668 2.831552 3.047118 3.293910 3.603123
2025-05-25 2.177716 2.356217 2.560210 2.815295 3.133171 3.527802 4.076486
2025-06-01 2.057492 2.255613 2.489210 2.792878 3.190901 3.718814 4.524916
2025-06-08 1.964311 2.174831 2.429035 2.769783 3.235445 3.889963 4.983363
2025-06-15 1.911204 2.136271 2.414445 2.799032 3.348152 4.171478 5.706913
2025-06-22 1.811779 2.032863 2.308698 2.694948 3.256818 4.123802 5.828460
2025-06-29 1.768891 1.997702 2.287842 2.703313 3.328270 4.345711 6.570854
2025-07-06 1.701239 1.927065 2.215579 2.633098 3.271363 4.338759 6.811641
2025-07-13 1.681784 1.917360 2.223279 2.676394 3.394838 4.674868 8.119483
2025-07-20 1.677846 1.927197 2.257232 2.759874 3.593924 5.210895 10.743213
2025-07-27 1.649157 1.902454 2.241471 2.766460 3.662453 5.499182 13.142526
2025-08-03 1.622544 1.879191 2.226243 2.772130 3.729352 5.805748 16.858957
2025-08-10 1.575330 1.827959 2.171264 2.715352 3.682242 5.841377 19.256788
2025-08-17 1.543479 1.796505 2.143126 2.699349 3.710158 6.084153 26.917207
2025-08-24 1.512481 1.765023 2.113363 2.678380 3.725585 6.302010 43.180917
2025-08-31 1.483465 1.735237 2.084676 2.657069 3.737550 6.518484 120.506260
2025-09-07 1.469397 1.725613 2.084987 2.683672 3.850783 7.118889 NaN
2025-09-14 1.423870 1.670581 2.015758 2.588484 3.696345 6.734215 NaN
2025-09-21 1.407604 1.656301 2.006962 2.596125 3.763925 7.188759 NaN
2025-09-28 1.373536 1.616016 1.957801 2.531745 3.668191 6.991200 NaN
2025-10-05 1.367658 1.615440 1.968401 2.571455 3.807537 7.813609 NaN
2025-10-12 1.370712 1.627553 1.998633 2.647843 4.045652 9.396369 NaN
2025-10-19 1.356963 1.615015 1.990235 2.653859 4.116453 10.238822 NaN